ZS

ZS

ZS

Recurring SaaS

★ Quality 38/100
Discounted

Price today

$150.05

what the market pays

Worth

$183.21

calculated cycle value

Worth $183.21price today $150.05

Price is 18% below its value

charlieapp.co

Price vs Intrinsic Value

VI$90.1$154$219$283$347'21'22'23'24'25'26ZSVI $183 · MdS +22%
UndervaluedDiscountedFair priceIV = current model value

The line is the price month by month; the green band marks when it's undervalued (−20% off value). When the price drops in there, the discount is real, not opinion.

Where does the value come from?

☁️

Software and subscriptions

$167.74

per share

How it's calculated

💰

Free cash flow per share

normalized free cash flow

$6.19
×
📐

Multiplier

years of discounted cash flows

27.1x
=
🏢

Business value

without cash

$167.74
🏦

Net cash in the bank

cash minus financial debt, per share

+$15.47

Total calculated value

business + cash

$183.21

How many times the cash flow

Recurring SaaS · vs 34 peers

You pay today
21.7x
Sector median
21.1x
Charlie: worth
27.1x

You pay 21.7x times this business's cash flow; its sector median is 21.1x.

25% below what Charlie thinks it's worth (27.1x) — that gap is your safety margin.

Why does Charlie give it 27.1x?

The multiple is how many times its cash flow the business is worth.

An average business of its kind is worth 21.1x. This one rises from there:

↑ up

77% margin. it charges almost pure toll; it can raise prices without losing customers.

↑ up

Grows 41% a year. next year's cash flow will be larger than today's.

That's why it's worth 27.1x, more than the 21.1x average.

Why Discounted?

Its free cash flow is $6.19/share × 27.1x multiplier plus $15.47 in net cash = $183.21 in intrinsic value. Today's price of $150.05 is 22% below value — a moderate discount, a good spot to enter gradually.

🟡

The price is 18% off the calculated value. Close, but without the ideal discount.

It's fine to buy in pieces. Monthly DCA works well here.

💡

For a bigger safety margin, wait for $146.57 or less.

At what price would buying make sense?

Entry zones

🟢 Undervalued

$146.57

-20% off Value

🟡 Discounted

$174.05

-5% off Value

🟡 Today

$150.05

+22% Valor

🟡

Discounted

The price is close to value. There's no big discount, but it's reasonable to invest in pieces.

The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.

— Warren Buffett

Model updated · July 2026

The business

Guardia en la nube que revisa cada conexión antes de dejarla entrar.

Zscaler pone un puesto de control en la nube entre cada empleado e internet, bajo la lógica 'confianza cero': nada pasa sin ser inspeccionado. Cobra suscripción anual por usuario, con ingresos casi 100% recurrentes. Facturó $2.7B con 77% de margen bruto.

Su red de seguridad procesa cientos de miles de millones de peticiones al día; cuanta más basura ve, mejor filtra. Una vez que reruteas todo tu tráfico corporativo por su nube, arrancarlo es doloroso y arriesgado. Aun así, el vecindario está lleno de gigantes con caja, así que el foso existe pero no es un cañón.

Revenue history

$0.7B
2021
$1.1B
2022
$1.6B
2023
$2.2B
2024
$2.7B
2025
CAGR 5 años: +41%

From $0.7B to $2.7B in 4 years — nearly 3.9x its size. Selling more and more is the base of everything else.

Catalysts and risks

Certificaciones FedRAMP abren contratos del gobierno de EE.UU.

Clientes con más de $1M de gasto anual crecen a doble dígito.

Nuevos productos de protección de datos e IA amplían el gasto por cliente.

⚠️

Palo Alto, Cisco, Cloudflare y Microsoft empujan la misma idea con más músculo.

⚠️

El resultado neto sigue negativo por compensación en acciones que diluye al accionista.

⚠️

Con 41% de crecimiento en el precio, cualquier desaceleración castiga el múltiplo sin piedad.

Charlie's note

Pagar 27x el flujo de caja por algo que crece 41% al año con 77% de margen y sin deuda no es ninguna extravagancia. El detalle es que la seguridad en la nube tiene demasiados vecinos hambrientos: paga por la ejecución, no por un foso que nadie puede cruzar.

Analysis · July 2026

So when would be a good price for ZS?

Today it trades below what we calculate. If you want us to tell you when that changes —or when the value itself moves because the company reported— we will email you.

🔔 Email me

Free · no card

Charlie informs, it doesn't advise. No information should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell.